LONDON, Sept. 23 (Reuters) – On Wednesday, local armed forces in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region seized control of three airports and clashed with federal troops at multiple locations, marking the start of a major offensive following months of escalating tensions.
This move shatters the peace agreement that ended the 2020–2022 conflict between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces, occurring against a backdrop of deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, civil war in Sudan, tensions over Red Sea access, and the Horn of Africa being drawn into Middle East conflicts.
Why do fresh clashes in the Tigray region threaten to escalate into a wider war in Ethiopia?
The Pretoria Agreement, which formally ended a conflict that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, has been under strain for months, with both sides accusing each other of violations.
The peace process began to unravel following a rift within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF); hardliners within the party regained control of the region and ousted the interim administration.
Recently, the TPLF formed an alliance with six other armed groups from across Ethiopia—including former wartime adversaries—aimed at toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
It remains unclear how many members of the alliance were involved in Wednesday’s clashes, but there are numerous well-armed regional militias across Ethiopia.
Abiy’s government has accused Eritrea of providing financial support to coalition members, allegations that Asmara denies.
What role will Eritrea play?
As the situation unfolds, all eyes will be on Asmara; relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa have been turbulent since Eritrea gained independence in 1993.
Shortly after taking office, Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending the two-decade-long state of hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
After the civil war broke out the following year, Eritrean forces intervened in support of the Ethiopian federal army. Relations between the two countries have continued to deteriorate since the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement; although Eritrea participated in the civil war, it was not a signatory to the agreement.
Access to the Red Sea is another point of contention.
Landlocked Ethiopia once possessed a coastline for decades until Eritrea seceded. Since then, Addis Ababa has repeatedly emphasized that regaining access to the sea—specifically the port of Assab—is vital for its long-term security and economic development. Asmara, for its part, has expressed concern that Addis Ababa might attempt to seize the port of Assab by force.
Earlier this month, the U.S. government lifted sanctions on the Eritrean Defense Forces and other entities.
It remains unclear what impact lifting the sanctions will have on any conflict involving Ethiopia, but the move is seen as an acknowledgment by the Trump administration of Eritrea’s strategic coastline—facing Saudi Arabia across the sea—and a warning to Ethiopia against going to war with Asmara.
What regional risks have exacerbated the severity of the situation?
Diplomats warn that if the Tigray war reignites, it will no longer be a relatively isolated conflict within Ethiopia.
Instead, the Horn of Africa would face its most volatile security environment in years, characterized by the raging war in Sudan, ongoing instability in Somalia, tensions over the Nile, and the spillover of expanding Middle Eastern conflicts and geopolitical dynamics into the region.
Ethiopia has been accused of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group, which is fighting the Sudanese army in one of the world’s deadliest conflicts.
Ethiopia denies supporting the RSF, yet such support aligns with its close ties to the UAE. The UAE is the most active major power in the Gulf region, and UN experts have alleged that it, too, is backing the RSF—allegations the UAE denies.
Eritrea has closer ties to Sudan and maintains relatively strong connections with Egypt, Ethiopia’s arch-rival. Both Egypt and Sudan view the Renaissance Dam, which Ethiopia is constructing on a tributary of the Nile, as a serious threat to their vital water supplies.